Bawler / ENGLAND: Championship / Derby
Team profile

Derby Prediction

Per-game numbers from 49 competitive matches · updated 16 August 2026

Shots
11.0
a game
12.8 faced
On target
3.6
a game
4.2 faced
Goals
1.4 – 1.3
scored – conceded
a game, 49 matches
Next match
42%
Derby win chance
vs Cardiff City · Sat 22 Aug 14:00

Derby prediction: for Derby's next match — Derby vs Cardiff City on Saturday 22 Aug, 14:00 UTC — Bawler's model makes it a Derby win looks most likely (42%).

Derby sit close to the Championship average on both sides of the ball, creating 1.26 expected goals a game and conceding 1.25. Next up is Cardiff City, where the model makes this close to a coin toss at 42%.

Derby in numbers

49 competitive matches · friendlies excluded
1.4
Goals · per game
let in 1.3
Home 1.3Away 1.5
4.5
Corners · per game
give up 5.4
Home 5.3Away 3.7
11.0
Shots · per game
faced 12.8
Home 11.6Away 10.3
3.6
On target · per game
faced 4.2
Home 3.7Away 3.5
Last 6 games
15 Aug
1-2
@ Charlton
4-5
08 Aug
1-2
vs Lincoln
3-6
08 Aug
1-2
vs Lincoln City
3-6
02 May
1-2
vs Sheffield United
6-3
25 Apr
3-2
@ QPR
6-10
21 Apr
1-2
@ Norwich
4-3

Real counted numbers, updated daily · see them working on today's predictions →

Next match

Home vs Cardiff City · Saturday 22 Aug, 14:00 UTC

Win
42%
Derby
Draw
34%
Loss
25%
Cardiff City
Full match preview

Attack vs defence

How Derby compare with the ENGLAND: Championship average, per match.

Goals for
1.26
Below average
Goals against
1.25
Tighter than most
Record
2W 0D 3L
5 settled
Real goals
1.4 – 1.4
For / against, per match
Scored1.26
Conceded1.25

The grey line on each bar is the ENGLAND: Championship average (1.27 scored, 1.28 conceded).

How Bawler has done on Derby

80%
of high-confidence calls correct — 4 of 5, well above the ~65% baseline
Goals (Over/Under)67%2/3
Result100%2/2

Each row is one market type. Every prediction logged before kickoff, settled publicly.

Recent matches (last 5)

Sat 15 Aug@ Charlton Athletic
High confidence: 1X
Sat 08 Augvs Lincoln City
High confidence: Over 1.5 Goals
Mon 06 Aprvs Stoke
High confidence: 1X
Fri 03 Apr@ Coventry
High confidence: Over 1.5 Goals
Sat 21 Marvs Birmingham
High confidence: Over 1.5 Goals

More on Derby and the model

Model estimates from rolling expected goals · every prediction logged before kickoff and settled publicly