FT · England: Championship · Saturday, 29 August 2026

Derby County 0–3 Swansea CityMatch recap & how our call landed · Saturday, 29 August 2026

Derby County
0–3
Swansea City win
Swansea City

Our call before kickoff

Our call missed

Before kickoff our call was Derby County or draw at 72%. Bawler had Derby County at 44%, the draw at 28% and Swansea City at 28%. The match finished 0–3.

Pre-match probability vs result

Derby County win
44%
Draw
28%
Swansea City win
28%
Result

Goals we expected vs goals scored

Our forecast
1.5 – 1.1
Total 2.6
Actual
0 – 3
Total 3 (+0.4 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
0.6 – 3.2
From the match itself

The match produced about as many goals as we forecast — within 0.4 of our 2.6.

Every graded pick · and how it landed

Graded pick · high confidence
Derby County or draw
Pre-match: 72%
Missed
Medium confidence
Under 2.5 goals
Pre-match: 53%
Missed

Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.

What we said pre-match

"Derby's lack of remaining stakes contrasts sharply with Swansea's need to play for points, yet the xG gap sits narrow at 0.27, making the Derby County or draw forecast (71% probability) the model's high-confidence call."

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