How it finished
Swansea City beat Derby County 3–0. Bawler's model favoured Derby County at 44% before kickoff and got it wrong — it gave Swansea City 28%. It forecast 2.6 goals and the match produced 3. Derby County had 8 shots (0 on target) to Swansea City's 23 (12), with 47% of the ball against 53%. Expected goals finished 0.6 to 3.2.
Published before kickoff and settled afterwards — misses included. Every call is time-stamped to the Bitcoin blockchain before the match so it cannot be edited later.
What we expected
What we expected before kickoff.
Each row is drawn on one scale, so a bar means the same length on both sides. Second-half goals are our full-match forecast minus our first half.
Our numbers, most likely first
What we published for this match, strongest first — our three strongest above the line.
First half — what we expected
Chance of at least one goal before half-time: 65%
First-half chances
How the match splits
How to read this
First-half numbers are our full-match forecast split by how much of each side's shooting and corners usually comes before the break. The small bars under each number are that side's most recent first halves (up to six).
Model inputs
Head to head
Common questions
Who won Derby County vs Swansea City?
Swansea City beat Derby County 3–0. Bawler's model favoured Derby County at 44% before kickoff and got it wrong — it gave Swansea City 28%. It forecast 2.6 goals and the match produced 3. Derby County had 8 shots (0 on target) to Swansea City's 23 (12), with 47% of the ball against 53%. Expected goals finished 0.6 to 3.2.
What was the final score in Derby County vs Swansea City?
Derby County 0–3 Swansea City, played on 29 Aug 2026 in the England: Championship. Bawler's model had gone into it with Derby County 44%, the draw 28% and Swansea City 28%.
What were the stats in Derby County vs Swansea City?
Full-time: Possession 47%–53%, Expected goals (xG) 0.6–3.2, Shots 8–23, Shots on target 0–12, Shots inside box 5–15, Big chances 0–4, Corners 5–6, Saves 9–0, Fouls 16–7, Offsides 5–4, Yellow cards 3–2.
Did both teams score in Derby County vs Swansea City?
No. It finished 0–3, so Derby County failed to score. Bawler's model had put both teams scoring at 51% before kickoff.
Was Bawler's prediction for Derby County vs Swansea City right?
Every call is published before kickoff and graded afterwards, misses included. On this match: Our call — we said Derby County or draw 72%, it finished Swansea City won (28% called); Total goals — we said 2.6, it finished 3; Both teams to score — we said 51%, it finished No; Second pick — we said Under 2.5 goals 53%, it finished Missed.