FT · Scotland: Scottish Prem · Saturday, 05 September 2026
Dundee United 1–1 FalkirkMatch recap & how our call landed · Saturday, 05 September 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Dundee United or draw at 65%. Bawler had Dundee United at 38%, the draw at 26% and Falkirk at 35%. The match finished 1–1.
Pre-match probability vs result
Dundee United win
38%
Draw
26%
Result
Falkirk win
35%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.5 – 1.4
Total 2.9
Actual
1 – 1
Total 2 (−0.9 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
2.3 – 0.8
From the match itself
The match produced 0.9 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 78%
Landed
Medium confidence
Over 2.5 goals
Pre-match: 55%
Missed
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 26%
Landed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals projects at 78% because both sides generate near-identical attacking threat—Dundee United's 1.48 xG and Falkirk's 1.40 xG combine for a 2.88-goal expectancy that favors a multi-goal contest."