Dundee United and Falkirk drew 1–1. Bawler's model favoured Dundee United at 38% before kickoff and got it wrong — it gave the draw 26%. It forecast 2.9 goals; only 2 were scored. Dundee United had 27 shots (9 on target) to Falkirk's 12 (4), with 62% of the ball against 38%. Expected goals finished 2.3 to 0.8.
Published before kickoff and settled afterwards — misses included. Every call is time-stamped to the Bitcoin blockchain before the match so it cannot be edited later.
What we expected before kickoff.
Each row is drawn on one scale, so a bar means the same length on both sides. Second-half goals are our full-match forecast minus our first half.
What we published for this match, strongest first — our three strongest above the line.
Chance of at least one goal before half-time: 65%
First-half numbers are our full-match forecast split by how much of each side's shooting and corners usually comes before the break. The small bars under each number are that side's most recent first halves (up to six).
Dundee United and Falkirk drew 1–1. Bawler's model favoured Dundee United at 38% before kickoff and got it wrong — it gave the draw 26%. It forecast 2.9 goals; only 2 were scored. Dundee United had 27 shots (9 on target) to Falkirk's 12 (4), with 62% of the ball against 38%. Expected goals finished 2.3 to 0.8.
Dundee United 1–1 Falkirk, played on 05 Sept 2026 in the Scotland: Scottish Prem. Bawler's model had gone into it with Dundee United 38%, the draw 26% and Falkirk 35%.
Full-time: Possession 62%–38%, Expected goals (xG) 2.3–0.8, Shots 27–12, Shots on target 9–4, Shots inside box 21–8, Big chances 4–1, Corners 14–5, Saves 3–8, Fouls 16–14, Offsides 2–1, Yellow cards 3–2.
Yes — both Dundee United and Falkirk scored, finishing 1–1. Bawler's model had put both teams scoring at 58% before kickoff.
Every call is published before kickoff and graded afterwards, misses included. On this match: Our call — we said Dundee United or draw 65%, it finished Draw (26% called); Total goals — we said 2.9, it finished 2; Both teams to score — we said 58%, it finished Yes; Graded pick — we said Over 1.5 goals 78%, it finished Landed; Second pick — we said Over 2.5 goals 55%, it finished Missed.