FT · Scotland: Scottish Prem · Saturday, 19 September 2026
Dundee 2–1 MotherwellMatch recap & how our call landed · Saturday, 19 September 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call missed
Before kickoff our call was Motherwell or draw at 72%. Bawler had Dundee at 28%, the draw at 26% and Motherwell at 46%. The match finished 2–1.
Pre-match probability vs result
Dundee win
28%
Result
Draw
26%
Motherwell win
46%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.2 – 1.6
Total 2.8
Actual
2 – 1
Total 3 (+0.2 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.4 – 1.1
From the match itself
The match produced about as many goals as we forecast — within 0.2 of our 2.8.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 77%
Landed
Medium confidence
Motherwell or draw
Pre-match: 72%
Missed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 31%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals is the high-confidence call at 75%, backed by Motherwell's 0.46 xG advantage and a combined 2.71 expected goals that tilts toward an open contest."