Ecuador vGermany
Over 2.5 Goals sits at 80% probability because Germany's 1.68 xG and Ecuador's 1.31 xG combine for a 2.98 total that punishes under-betting in a fixture where the visitors' attacking depth—led by Wirtz at 22% of team creation—should pierce a home defence yielding 0.37 xG more than they generate.
Model probabilities for this fixture, ordered by likelihood. Estimates from rolling expected goals — not guarantees.
Ecuador average 6.0 corners per game at home this season (2 competitive matches).
Most likely to score or assist
Probabilities from a per-player model on recent form and minutes played.
More predictions for these teams
Ecuador vs Germany — Head-to-Head
This is the first meeting Bawler has on record between Ecuador and Germany — the model's ledger starts at model launch, so no earlier fixtures between these two sides have been logged and settled yet.
The model's verdict for this fixture: Ecuador 27% · draw 29% · Germany 44%.
Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees — past results do not decide future ones.
Model estimates from rolling expected goals — not guaranteed outcomes. Past accuracy does not guarantee future results.