England vArgentina
Over 1.5 Goals sits at 69% because England and Argentina combine for just 2.72 expected goals in a evenly matched World Cup final where Kane and Messi each generate 22% of their team's attacking threat.
Model probabilities for this fixture, ordered by likelihood. Estimates from rolling expected goals — not guarantees.
England average 5.0 corners per game at home this season (3 competitive matches). Argentina average 6.0 corners per game away from home this season (2 competitive matches).
Most likely to score or assist
Probabilities from a per-player model on recent form and minutes played.
More predictions for these teams
England vs Argentina — Head-to-Head
This is the first meeting Bawler has on record between England and Argentina — the model's ledger starts at model launch, so no earlier fixtures between these two sides have been logged and settled yet.
The model's verdict for this fixture: England 35% · draw 33% · Argentina 32%.
Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees — past results do not decide future ones.
Model estimates from rolling expected goals — not guaranteed outcomes. Past accuracy does not guarantee future results.