FT · Europe: UEFA Nations League · Saturday, 26 September 2026

England 2–3 SpainMatch recap & how our call landed · Saturday, 26 September 2026

England
2–3
Spain win
Spain

Our call before kickoff

Our call landed

Before kickoff our call was Spain or draw at 74%. Bawler had England at 26%, the draw at 27% and Spain at 46%. The match finished 2–3.

Pre-match probability vs result

England win
26%
Draw
27%
Spain win
46%
Result

Goals we expected vs goals scored

Our forecast
1.1 – 1.5
Total 2.6
Actual
2 – 3
Total 5 (+2.4 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.5 – 3.0
From the match itself

The match produced 2.4 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.

Every graded pick · and how it landed

Graded pick · high confidence
Spain or draw
Pre-match: 74%
Landed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 26%
Landed

Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.

What we said pre-match

"Spain's superior shot quality (1.53 xG vs England's 1.18) underpins the high-confidence Over 1.5 Goals forecast at 75%, with Lewandowski and Kane both positioned to contribute in a fixture tilted toward the visitors."

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