How it finished
Spain beat England 3–2. Bawler's model had Spain in front at 46% before kickoff, and that is how it finished. It forecast 2.6 goals; the match produced 5. England had 13 shots (5 on target) to Spain's 15 (5), with 47% of the ball against 53%. Expected goals finished 1.5 to 3.0.
Published before kickoff and settled afterwards — misses included. Every call is time-stamped to the Bitcoin blockchain before the match so it cannot be edited later.
What we expected
What we expected before kickoff.
Each row is drawn on one scale, so a bar means the same length on both sides. Second-half goals are our full-match forecast minus our first half. Shots and corners are not shown for this match — one of these national teams has too few recorded games for us to forecast them.
Our numbers, most likely first
What we published for this match, strongest first — our three strongest above the line.
First half — what we expected
Chance of at least one goal before half-time: 68%
Shots and corners are not shown for international matches yet — national teams play too few games for us to forecast them well.
Model inputs
Head to head
Common questions
Who won England vs Spain?
Spain beat England 3–2. Bawler's model had Spain in front at 46% before kickoff, and that is how it finished. It forecast 2.6 goals; the match produced 5. England had 13 shots (5 on target) to Spain's 15 (5), with 47% of the ball against 53%. Expected goals finished 1.5 to 3.0.
What was the final score in England vs Spain?
England 2–3 Spain, played on 26 Sept 2026 in the Europe: UEFA Nations League. Bawler's model had gone into it with England 26%, the draw 27% and Spain 46%.
What were the stats in England vs Spain?
Full-time: Possession 47%–53%, Expected goals (xG) 1.5–3.0, Shots 13–15, Shots on target 5–5, Shots inside box 7–8, Big chances 3–5, Corners 6–3, Saves 2–3, Fouls 11–16, Offsides 1–1, Yellow cards 3–0.
Did both teams score in England vs Spain?
Yes — both England and Spain scored, finishing 2–3. Bawler's model had put both teams scoring at 52% before kickoff.
Was Bawler's prediction for England vs Spain right?
Every call is published before kickoff and graded afterwards, misses included. On this match: Our call — we said Spain or draw 74%, it finished Spain won (46% called); Total goals — we said 2.6, it finished 5; Both teams to score — we said 52%, it finished Yes.