FT · Spain: La Liga · Friday, 18 September 2026
Espanyol 1–3 ElcheMatch recap & how our call landed · Friday, 18 September 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call missed
Before kickoff our call was Espanyol or draw at 75%. Bawler had Espanyol at 50%, the draw at 25% and Elche at 25%. The match finished 1–3.
Pre-match probability vs result
Espanyol win
50%
Draw
25%
Elche win
25%
Result
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.7 – 1.1
Total 2.8
Actual
1 – 3
Total 4 (+1.2 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.0 – 1.4
From the match itself
The match produced 1.2 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 77%
Landed
Medium confidence
Over 2.5 goals
Pre-match: 54%
Landed
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 25%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals dominates the forecast at 77% probability, powered by Espanyol's 0.56 expected-goals edge at home where they generate 1.69 xG against Elche's 1.13."