FT · Spain: La Liga · Sunday, 16 August 2026
Espanyol 3–0 LevanteMatch recap & how our call landed · Sunday, 16 August 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Espanyol or draw at 76%. Bawler had Espanyol at 47%, the draw at 29% and Levante at 24%. The match finished 3–0.
Pre-match probability vs result
Espanyol win
47%
Result
Draw
29%
Levante win
24%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.8 – 1.2
Total 2.9
Actual
3 – 0
Total 3 (+0.1 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.6 – 0.3
From the match itself
The match produced about as many goals as we forecast — within 0.1 of our 2.9.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Espanyol or draw
Pre-match: 78%
Landed
Medium confidence
Not both teams to score
Pre-match: 51%
Landed
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 26%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Levante's fight for survival against a settled Espanyol side with no stakes creates asymmetry the model exploits: Espanyol or draw (78% forecast) reflects home advantage and a 0.60 xG edge."