Spain: La LigaSunday 16 Aug, 17:00 UTC

Espanyol vLevante

Most likely scoreline
11
11% of the time · 2.93 goals expected
Espanyol 47%Draw 29%Levante 24%
Strongest call
Espanyol or draw
78%

Levante's fight for survival against a settled Espanyol side with no stakes creates asymmetry the model exploits: 1X (78% forecast) reflects home advantage and a 0.60 xG edge.

End-of-season stakes
Home
Espanyol
Away
Levante
Battling relegation
19th · 5 from safety · 8 left
Goals forecast adjusted +5% for what's at stake
How we get there
EspanyolstepLevante
1.56Base xG · rolling 26-match1.24
× 1.13Home advantage · Home× 0.94
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.76Final goal estimate — what the model uses1.17
Most likely outcomes
Espanyol or draw
78%
Not both teams to score
51%
Draw
26%

Model probabilities for this fixture, ordered by likelihood. Estimates from rolling expected goals — not guarantees.

Espanyol average 5.0 corners per game at home this season (18 competitive matches). Levante average 3.3 corners per game away from home this season (19 competitive matches).

Scoreline distribution · chance of each scoremodel estimate
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
5
6
4
1
1
9
11
6
2
1
2
8
10
6
2
1
3
5
6
3
1
4
2
3
1
1
5
1
1
1
6
home windrawaway win

More predictions for these teams

Espanyol vs Levante — Head-to-Head

This is the first meeting Bawler has on record between Espanyol and Levante — the model's ledger starts at model launch, so no earlier fixtures between these two sides have been logged and settled yet.

The model's verdict for this fixture: Espanyol 47% · draw 29% · Levante 24%.

Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees — past results do not decide future ones.

More match predictions ▶

Model estimates from rolling expected goals — not guaranteed outcomes. Past accuracy does not guarantee future results.