FT · Spain: La Liga · Sunday, 06 September 2026
Espanyol 1–1 SevillaMatch recap & how our call landed · Sunday, 06 September 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Espanyol or draw at 75%. Bawler had Espanyol at 49%, the draw at 26% and Sevilla at 25%. The match finished 1–1.
Pre-match probability vs result
Espanyol win
49%
Draw
26%
Result
Sevilla win
25%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.6 – 1.1
Total 2.7
Actual
1 – 1
Total 2 (−0.7 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.2 – 0.5
From the match itself
The match produced 0.7 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 75%
Landed
Medium confidence
Espanyol or draw
Pre-match: 75%
Landed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 29%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Sevilla's fight to avoid the drop collides with Espanyol's superior attacking output (1.62 xG vs 1.14), making Over 1.5 Goals the high-confidence call at 76%."