FT · Portugal: Primeira Liga · Monday, 07 September 2026
Estoril 0–0 AroucaMatch recap & how our call landed · Monday, 07 September 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Estoril or draw at 68%. Bawler had Estoril at 43%, the draw at 26% and Arouca at 32%. The match finished 0–0.
Pre-match probability vs result
Estoril win
43%
Draw
26%
Result
Arouca win
32%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.6 – 1.4
Total 3.0
Actual
0 – 0
Total 0 (−3.0 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
0.9 – 1.1
From the match itself
The match produced 3.0 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 80%
Missed
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 26%
Landed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals projects at 80% because both sides combine for 2.97 expected goals, giving Estoril's home advantage just enough edge in a fixture where neither team dominates the xG battle."