FT · Portugal: Primeira Liga · Sunday, 20 September 2026
Estoril 1–2 Casa PiaMatch recap & how our call landed · Sunday, 20 September 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call missed
Before kickoff our call was Estoril or draw at 77%. Bawler had Estoril at 51%, the draw at 26% and Casa Pia at 23%. The match finished 1–2.
Pre-match probability vs result
Estoril win
51%
Draw
26%
Casa Pia win
23%
Result
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.7 – 1.1
Total 2.7
Actual
1 – 2
Total 3 (+0.3 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.0 – 2.2
From the match itself
The match produced about as many goals as we forecast — within 0.3 of our 2.7.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Estoril or draw
Pre-match: 77%
Missed
Medium confidence
Over 2.5 goals
Pre-match: 52%
Landed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 30%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Estoril's 0.67 expected-goals edge over Casa Pia underpins a 78% forecast for Over 1.5 Goals, making a multi-goal affair the model's clearest conviction in this fixture."