How it finished
Casa Pia beat Estoril 2–1. Bawler's model favoured Estoril at 51% before kickoff and got it wrong — it gave Casa Pia 23%. It forecast 2.7 goals and the match produced 3. Estoril had 14 shots (6 on target) to Casa Pia's 11 (3), with 53% of the ball against 47%. Expected goals finished 1.0 to 2.2.
Published before kickoff and settled afterwards — misses included. Every call is time-stamped to the Bitcoin blockchain before the match so it cannot be edited later.
What we expected
What we expected before kickoff.
Each row is drawn on one scale, so a bar means the same length on both sides. Second-half goals are our full-match forecast minus our first half.
Our numbers, most likely first
What we published for this match, strongest first — our three strongest above the line.
First half — what we expected
Chance of at least one goal before half-time: 70%
First-half chances
How the match splits
How to read this
First-half numbers are our full-match forecast split by how much of each side's shooting and corners usually comes before the break. The small bars under each number are that side's most recent first halves (up to six).
Model inputs
Head to head
Common questions
Who won Estoril vs Casa Pia?
Casa Pia beat Estoril 2–1. Bawler's model favoured Estoril at 51% before kickoff and got it wrong — it gave Casa Pia 23%. It forecast 2.7 goals and the match produced 3. Estoril had 14 shots (6 on target) to Casa Pia's 11 (3), with 53% of the ball against 47%. Expected goals finished 1.0 to 2.2.
What was the final score in Estoril vs Casa Pia?
Estoril 1–2 Casa Pia, played on 20 Sept 2026 in the Portugal: Primeira Liga. Bawler's model had gone into it with Estoril 51%, the draw 26% and Casa Pia 23%.
What were the stats in Estoril vs Casa Pia?
Full-time: Possession 53%–47%, Expected goals (xG) 1.0–2.2, Shots 14–11, Shots on target 6–3, Shots inside box 7–7, Big chances 2–2, Corners 7–4, Saves 0–5, Fouls 7–11, Offsides 0–3, Yellow cards 3–2.
Did both teams score in Estoril vs Casa Pia?
Yes — both Estoril and Casa Pia scored, finishing 1–2. Bawler's model had put both teams scoring at 53% before kickoff.
Was Bawler's prediction for Estoril vs Casa Pia right?
Every call is published before kickoff and graded afterwards, misses included. On this match: Our call — we said Estoril or draw 77%, it finished Casa Pia won (23% called); Total goals — we said 2.7, it finished 3; Both teams to score — we said 53%, it finished Yes; Second pick — we said Over 2.5 goals 52%, it finished Landed.