Portugal: Primeira LigaFriday 07 Aug, 19:15 UTC

Estoril vFC Famalicao

Most likely scoreline
1–1
12% of the time · 2.64 goals expected
Estoril 36%Draw 32%FC Famalicao 32%
Strongest call
Over 1.5 goals
64%

Under 2.5 Goals is the play here—combined expected goals of just 1.50 project a low-scoring affair despite Famalicao's modest 35% win probability.

How we get there
EstorilstepFC Famalicao
1.21Base xG · rolling 26-match1.35
× 1.13Home advantage · Home× 0.94
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.37Final goal estimate — what the model uses1.27
Most likely outcomes
Over 1.5 goals
64%
FC Famalicao or draw
29%

Model probabilities for this fixture, ordered by likelihood. Estimates from rolling expected goals — not guarantees.

Estoril average 4.7 corners per game at home this season (18 competitive matches). Famalicao average 5.3 corners per game away from home this season (18 competitive matches).

Scoreline distribution · chance of each scoremodel estimate
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
7
9
6
2
1
1
10
12
8
3
1
2
7
8
5
2
1
3
3
4
2
1
4
1
1
1
5
6
home windrawaway win

More predictions for these teams

Estoril fixtures & form →FC Famalicao fixtures & form →

Estoril vs Famalicao — Head-to-Head

In 1 recorded meeting since 26 April 2026, Estoril have won 0, Famalicao have won 1, with 0 drawn. This covers only matches in Bawler's own settled ledger — not an all-time head-to-head record.

DateResultCompetition
26 April 2026Estoril 0–1 FamalicaoPORTUGAL: Liga Portugal

The model's verdict for this fixture: Estoril 36% · draw 32% · Famalicao 32%.

Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees — past results do not decide future ones.

Estoril predictions & form →Famalicao predictions & form →BTTS predictions →Over 2.5 goals predictions →Full track record →
⚡ Full-time recap available
Estoril 1–1 FC Famalicao
See how the model called it · call-by-call verdict · xG vs actual →
More match predictions ▶
Betting picks & odds for this match (18+) →

Model estimates from rolling expected goals — not guaranteed outcomes. Past accuracy does not guarantee future results.