FT · PORTUGAL: Liga Portugal · Saturday, 22 August 2026
Estoril 0–2 Rio AveMatch recap & how our call landed · Saturday, 22 August 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call missed
Before kickoff our call was Estoril or draw at 73%. Bawler had Estoril at 47%, the draw at 26% and Rio Ave at 27%. The match finished 0–2.
Pre-match probability vs result
Estoril win
47%
Draw
26%
Rio Ave win
27%
Result
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.6 – 1.1
Total 2.8
Actual
0 – 2
Total 2 (−0.8 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.2 – 0.7
From the match itself
The match produced 0.8 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 76%
Landed
Medium confidence
Estoril or draw
Pre-match: 73%
Missed
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 26%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.