USA: MLSWednesday 22 Jul, 23:30 UTC

FC Cincinnati vVancouver Whitecaps

Most likely scoreline
11
10% of the time · 3.34 goals expected
FC Cincinnati 28%Draw 27%Vancouver Whitecaps 44%
Strongest call
Over 1.5 goals
85%

Over 1.5 Goals sits at 85% because Vancouver's 1.86 xG and Cincinnati's 1.48 combine for a high-volume attacking blueprint that striker Brian White and creator Evander will exploit.

How we get there
FC CincinnatistepVancouver Whitecaps
1.31Base xG · rolling 26-match1.98
× 1.13Home advantage · Home× 0.94
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.48Final goal estimate — what the model uses1.86
Most likely outcomes
Over 1.5 goals
85%
Over 3.5 goals
32%

Model probabilities for this fixture, ordered by likelihood. Estimates from rolling expected goals — not guarantees.

Cincinnati average 4.6 corners per game at home this season (28 competitive matches). Vancouver Whitecaps average 4.6 corners per game away from home this season (29 competitive matches).

Scoreline distribution · chance of each scoremodel estimate
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
4
7
6
4
2
1
1
5
10
9
6
3
1
2
4
7
7
4
2
1
3
2
4
3
2
1
4
1
1
1
1
5
6
home windrawaway win

More predictions for these teams

Cincinnati vs Vancouver Whitecaps — Head-to-Head

This is the first meeting Bawler has on record between Cincinnati and Vancouver Whitecaps — the model's ledger starts at model launch, so no earlier fixtures between these two sides have been logged and settled yet.

The model's verdict for this fixture: Cincinnati 28% · draw 27% · Vancouver Whitecaps 44%.

Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees — past results do not decide future ones.

⚡ Full-time recap available
FC Cincinnati 43 Vancouver Whitecaps
See how the model called it · call-by-call verdict · xG vs actual →
More match predictions ▶

Model estimates from rolling expected goals — not guaranteed outcomes. Past accuracy does not guarantee future results.