FT · Netherlands: Eredivisie · Sunday, 16 August 2026
FC Twente 3–1 PEC ZwolleMatch recap & how our call landed · Sunday, 16 August 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was FC Twente to win at 68%. Bawler had FC Twente at 68%, the draw at 21% and PEC Zwolle at 10%. The match finished 3–1.
Pre-match probability vs result
FC Twente win
68%
Result
Draw
21%
PEC Zwolle win
10%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
2.4 – 0.8
Total 3.2
Actual
3 – 1
Total 4 (+0.8 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
2.1 – 0.7
From the match itself
The match produced 0.8 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
FC Twente to win
Pre-match: 88%
Landed
Medium confidence
Not both teams to score
Pre-match: 54%
Missed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 33%
Landed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Twente's home win prediction rests on a commanding 1.50 expected-goals advantage, translating to a 68% win probability that reflects their superior attacking threat."