FT · Netherlands: Eredivisie · Sunday, 20 September 2026
FC Twente 3–2 PSV EindhovenMatch recap & how our call landed · Sunday, 20 September 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was FC Twente or draw at 63%. Bawler had FC Twente at 39%, the draw at 24% and PSV Eindhoven at 37%. The match finished 3–2.
Pre-match probability vs result
FC Twente win
39%
Result
Draw
24%
PSV Eindhoven win
37%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.7 – 1.7
Total 3.4
Actual
3 – 2
Total 5 (+1.6 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
2.4 – 0.8
From the match itself
The match produced 1.6 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 85%
Landed
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 24%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals projects at 84% because both sides generate genuine attacking threat—Twente's 1.76 xG and PSV's 1.57 xG combine for 3.33 total, with De Jong's striker role anchoring PSV's threat despite the narrow win-probability gap."