World: World CupThursday 09 Jul, 20:00 UTC

France vMorocco

Most likely scoreline
11
11% of the time · 2.87 goals expected
France 55%Draw 26%Morocco 19%
Strongest call
France or draw
82%

France's 55% win probability and 0.44 expected-goals edge makes 1X the banker play at 82%, with Mbappé's creative weight offsetting Morocco's counter threat.

How we get there
FrancestepMorocco
1.66Base xG · rolling 26-match1.22
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.66Final goal estimate — what the model uses1.22
Most likely outcomes
France or draw
82%
Over 2.5 goals
54%
Over 3.5 goals
24%

Model probabilities for this fixture, ordered by likelihood. Estimates from rolling expected goals — not guarantees.

France average 4.3 corners per game at home this season (3 competitive matches). Morocco average 3.7 corners per game away from home this season (3 competitive matches).

Scoreline distribution · chance of each scoremodel estimate
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
6
7
4
2
1
1
9
11
7
3
1
2
8
9
6
2
1
3
4
5
3
1
4
2
2
1
1
5
1
1
6
home windrawaway win

Most likely to score or assist

To score
Kylian Mbappé
France · Real Madrid
55%
To score
Marcus Thuram
France · Inter Milan
42%
To score
Ousmane Dembélé
France · PSG
38%

Probabilities from a per-player model on recent form and minutes played.

More predictions for these teams

France vs Morocco — Head-to-Head

This is the first meeting Bawler has on record between France and Morocco — the model's ledger starts at model launch, so no earlier fixtures between these two sides have been logged and settled yet.

The model's verdict for this fixture: France 55% · draw 26% · Morocco 19%.

Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees — past results do not decide future ones.

⚡ Full-time recap available
France 20 Morocco
See how the model called it · call-by-call verdict · xG vs actual →
More match predictions ▶

Model estimates from rolling expected goals — not guaranteed outcomes. Past accuracy does not guarantee future results.