France vMorocco
France's 55% win probability and 0.44 expected-goals edge makes 1X the banker play at 82%, with Mbappé's creative weight offsetting Morocco's counter threat.
Model probabilities for this fixture, ordered by likelihood. Estimates from rolling expected goals — not guarantees.
France average 4.3 corners per game at home this season (3 competitive matches). Morocco average 3.7 corners per game away from home this season (3 competitive matches).
Most likely to score or assist
Probabilities from a per-player model on recent form and minutes played.
More predictions for these teams
France vs Morocco — Head-to-Head
This is the first meeting Bawler has on record between France and Morocco — the model's ledger starts at model launch, so no earlier fixtures between these two sides have been logged and settled yet.
The model's verdict for this fixture: France 55% · draw 26% · Morocco 19%.
Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees — past results do not decide future ones.
Model estimates from rolling expected goals — not guaranteed outcomes. Past accuracy does not guarantee future results.