France vSpain
Over 1.5 Goals is the play at 73% as France's Mbappé and Spain's Yamal—accounting for 22% of each team's attacking threat—face near-identical xG projections (1.49 vs 1.46) that guarantee multiple scoring chances.
Model probabilities for this fixture, ordered by likelihood. Estimates from rolling expected goals — not guarantees.
France average 4.3 corners per game at home this season (3 competitive matches). Spain average 4.7 corners per game away from home this season (3 competitive matches).
Most likely to score or assist
Probabilities from a per-player model on recent form and minutes played.
More predictions for these teams
France vs Spain — Head-to-Head
This is the first meeting Bawler has on record between France and Spain — the model's ledger starts at model launch, so no earlier fixtures between these two sides have been logged and settled yet.
The model's verdict for this fixture: France 39% · draw 30% · Spain 31%.
Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees — past results do not decide future ones.
Model estimates from rolling expected goals — not guaranteed outcomes. Past accuracy does not guarantee future results.