World: World CupTuesday 30 Jun, 21:00 UTC

France vSweden

Most likely scoreline
10
11% of the time · 2.91 goals expected
France 57%Draw 27%Sweden 17%
Strongest call
Over 2.5 goals
75%

Over 2.5 Goals sits at 77% because France's 2.01 xG dwarfs Sweden's 0.95, giving the hosts the firepower to breach a porous visitor defence.

How we get there
FrancestepSweden
1.94Base xG · rolling 26-match0.97
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.94Final goal estimate — what the model uses0.97
Most likely outcomes
Over 2.5 goals
75%
Under 2.5 goals
25%

Model probabilities for this fixture, ordered by likelihood. Estimates from rolling expected goals — not guarantees.

France average 4.3 corners per game at home this season (3 competitive matches). Sweden average 5.3 corners per game away from home this season (3 competitive matches).

Scoreline distribution · chance of each scoremodel estimate
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
5
5
3
1
1
11
10
5
2
2
10
10
5
2
3
7
6
3
1
4
3
3
2
5
1
1
1
6
home windrawaway win

Most likely to score or assist

To score
Viktor Gyökeres
Sweden · Arsenal
58%
To score
Kylian Mbappé
France · Real Madrid
55%
To score
Alexander Isak
Sweden · Liverpool
52%

Probabilities from a per-player model on recent form and minutes played.

More predictions for these teams

France vs Sweden — Head-to-Head

This is the first meeting Bawler has on record between France and Sweden — the model's ledger starts at model launch, so no earlier fixtures between these two sides have been logged and settled yet.

The model's verdict for this fixture: France 57% · draw 27% · Sweden 17%.

Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees — past results do not decide future ones.

⚡ Full-time recap available
France 30 Sweden
See how the model called it · call-by-call verdict · xG vs actual →
More match predictions ▶

Model estimates from rolling expected goals — not guaranteed outcomes. Past accuracy does not guarantee future results.