FT · England: Premier League · Saturday, 05 September 2026
Fulham 2–3 Crystal PalaceMatch recap & how our call landed · Saturday, 05 September 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call missed
Before kickoff our call was Fulham or draw at 65%. Bawler had Fulham at 38%, the draw at 27% and Crystal Palace at 35%. The match finished 2–3.
Pre-match probability vs result
Fulham win
38%
Draw
27%
Crystal Palace win
35%
Result
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.4 – 1.4
Total 2.8
Actual
2 – 3
Total 5 (+2.2 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
3.1 – 2.0
From the match itself
The match produced 2.2 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 76%
Landed
Medium confidence
Over 2.5 goals
Pre-match: 52%
Landed
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 27%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"With both sides mathematically removed from contention, Fulham's superior expected-goals edge (1.42 to 1.35) and Jiménez's 25% of team creation should power Over 1.5 Goals, a 76% forecast."