World: World CupMonday 29 Jun, 20:30 UTC

Germany vParaguay

Most likely scoreline
10
12% of the time · 2.79 goals expected
Germany 60%Draw 26%Paraguay 14%
Strongest call
Over 2.5 goals
71%

Over 2.5 Goals dominates at 71% because Germany's 1.94 xG plus Paraguay's 0.85 creates a 1.09-goal gap that favors attacking output on home soil.

How we get there
GermanystepParaguay
1.94Base xG · rolling 26-match0.85
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.94Final goal estimate — what the model uses0.85
Most likely outcomes
Over 2.5 goals
71%
Over 3.5 goals
26%

Model probabilities for this fixture, ordered by likelihood. Estimates from rolling expected goals — not guarantees.

Scoreline distribution · chance of each scoremodel estimate
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
6
5
2
1
1
12
10
4
1
2
12
10
4
1
3
7
6
3
1
4
4
3
1
5
1
1
1
6
home windrawaway win

Most likely to score or assist

To score
Florian Wirtz
Germany · Liverpool
42%
To score
Jamal Musiala
Germany · Bayern Munich
40%
To score
Kai Havertz
Germany · Arsenal
38%

Probabilities from a per-player model on recent form and minutes played.

More predictions for these teams

Germany vs Paraguay — Head-to-Head

This is the first meeting Bawler has on record between Germany and Paraguay — the model's ledger starts at model launch, so no earlier fixtures between these two sides have been logged and settled yet.

The model's verdict for this fixture: Germany 60% · draw 26% · Paraguay 14%.

Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees — past results do not decide future ones.

⚡ Full-time recap available
Germany 11 Paraguay
See how the model called it · call-by-call verdict · xG vs actual →
More match predictions ▶

Model estimates from rolling expected goals — not guaranteed outcomes. Past accuracy does not guarantee future results.