World: World CupWednesday 17 Jun, 23:00 UTC

Ghana vPanama

Most likely scoreline
11
13% of the time · 2.41 goals expected
Ghana 39%Draw 34%Panama 27%
Strongest call
Over 1.5 goals
69%

Over 1.5 Goals projects at 69% with Ghana's creator Kudus generating 24% of team xG and Panama's Godoy prone to disruption—both sides' attacking thrust ensures the 2.41 combined xG ceiling breaks the threshold.

How we get there
GhanastepPanama
1.33Base xG · rolling 26-match1.08
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.33Final goal estimate — what the model uses1.08
Most likely outcomes
Over 1.5 goals
69%
Panama or draw
53%
Panama to win
26%

Model probabilities for this fixture, ordered by likelihood. Estimates from rolling expected goals — not guarantees.

Scoreline distribution · chance of each scoremodel estimate
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
9
10
5
2
1
1
12
13
7
3
1
2
8
9
5
2
3
4
4
2
1
4
1
1
1
5
6
home windrawaway win

Most likely to score or assist

To score
Antoine Semenyo
Ghana · Bournemouth
38%
To score
Iñaki Williams
Ghana · Athletic Bilbao
36%

Probabilities from a per-player model on recent form and minutes played.

More predictions for these teams

Ghana vs Panama — Head-to-Head

This is the first meeting Bawler has on record between Ghana and Panama — the model's ledger starts at model launch, so no earlier fixtures between these two sides have been logged and settled yet.

The model's verdict for this fixture: Ghana 39% · draw 34% · Panama 27%.

Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees — past results do not decide future ones.

⚡ Full-time recap available
Ghana 10 Panama
See how the model called it · call-by-call verdict · xG vs actual →
More match predictions ▶

Model estimates from rolling expected goals — not guaranteed outcomes. Past accuracy does not guarantee future results.