> MATCH.PREDICT()·World: World Cup·Wednesday 17 Jun, 23:00 UTC
Ghana vs Panama
Bawler runs a Poisson model on rolling xG, normalised across leagues, adjusted for venue and injuries. This page shows the full chain — every number you can see is one we used.
Why the model calls it this way
Over 1.5 Goals projects at 69% with Ghana's creator Kudus generating 24% of team xG and Panama's Godoy prone to disruption—both sides' attacking thrust ensures the 2.41 combined xG ceiling breaks the threshold.
Win probability
39.0% home33.7% draw27.3% away
xG chain — base → adjustments → final λ
GhanastepPanama
1.33Base xG · rolling 26-match1.08
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.33Final λ — what the Poisson uses1.08
Scoreline distribution · P(score) %bivariate Poisson
0
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0
9
10
5
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1
12
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7
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2
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1
1
1
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home windrawaway win
BAWL OUTPro
Under 10.5 Corners + Over 1.5 Goals + 1X + Antoine Semenyo 1+ Shot on Target
Model 19.9% · @ 5.03x
Take this pick →> STAR_PICKS · player props
2 picksProbabilities from a per-player calibrated model on club xG / form, scaled to international minutes. Updated daily.
> More predictions for these teams
Statistical analysis for entertainment · Not betting advice · Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes · 18+