Bawler / Ghana vs Panama / Recap
FT · World: World Cup · Thursday, 18 June 2026

Ghana 1–0 PanamaMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Thursday, 18 June 2026

Ghana
1–0
Ghana win
Panama
> 🧠 Model verdict
✓ Model called it

Pre-match, Bawler had Ghana at 39%, draw at 34%, Panama at 27%. The match ended 1-0 — confirming the model's lean toward Ghana.

> Pre-match probability vs result
Ghana win
39%
Actual ✓
Draw
34%
Panama win
27%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.33 – 1.08
Total 2.41
Actual
1 – 0
Total 1 (-1.4 vs xG)

Match underperformed xG by 1.4 goals. Below-expectation scoring — could be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping, or low-quality chances the model over-rated.

> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 69%
✗ Lost
Medium confidence
X2
Pre-match: 53%
✗ Lost
Outside shot
Away Win
Pre-match: 26%
✗ Lost
> What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals projects at 69% with Ghana's creator Kudus generating 24% of team xG and Panama's Godoy prone to disruption—both sides' attacking thrust ensures the 2.41 combined xG ceiling breaks the threshold."

> More from Bawler