FT · Germany: Bundesliga · Sunday, 06 September 2026
Hamburg SV 0–5 MainzMatch recap & how our call landed · Sunday, 06 September 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call missed
Before kickoff our call was Hamburg SV or draw at 64%. Bawler had Hamburg SV at 39%, the draw at 25% and Mainz at 36%. The match finished 0–5.
Pre-match probability vs result
Hamburg SV win
39%
Draw
25%
Mainz win
36%
Result
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.6 – 1.5
Total 3.1
Actual
0 – 5
Total 5 (+1.9 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
0.2 – 3.0
From the match itself
The match produced 1.9 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 82%
Landed
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 25%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"With both sides outside the decisive battles, Hamburg's 1.60 expected goals at home edges Mainz's 1.52, driving the model's 82% forecast for Over 1.5 Goals in a fixture evenly matched across the board."