How it finished
Mainz beat Hamburg SV 5–0. Bawler's model favoured Hamburg SV at 39% before kickoff and got it wrong — it gave Mainz 36%. It forecast 3.1 goals; the match produced 5. Hamburg SV had 8 shots (1 on target) to Mainz's 16 (8), with 54% of the ball against 46%. Expected goals finished 0.2 to 3.0.
Published before kickoff and settled afterwards — misses included. Every call is time-stamped to the Bitcoin blockchain before the match so it cannot be edited later.
What we expected
What we expected before kickoff.
Each row is drawn on one scale, so a bar means the same length on both sides. Second-half goals are our full-match forecast minus our first half. Shots and corners are not shown for this fixture — we do not have enough counted matches for these sides yet.
Our numbers, most likely first
What we published for this match, strongest first — our three strongest above the line.
First half — what we expected
Chance of at least one goal before half-time: 75%
Shots and corners are not shown for this fixture — we do not have enough counted matches for these sides yet.
Model inputs
Head to head
Common questions
Who won Hamburg SV vs Mainz?
Mainz beat Hamburg SV 5–0. Bawler's model favoured Hamburg SV at 39% before kickoff and got it wrong — it gave Mainz 36%. It forecast 3.1 goals; the match produced 5. Hamburg SV had 8 shots (1 on target) to Mainz's 16 (8), with 54% of the ball against 46%. Expected goals finished 0.2 to 3.0.
What was the final score in Hamburg SV vs Mainz?
Hamburg SV 0–5 Mainz, played on 06 Sept 2026 in the Germany: Bundesliga. Bawler's model had gone into it with Hamburg SV 39%, the draw 25% and Mainz 36%.
What were the stats in Hamburg SV vs Mainz?
Full-time: Possession 54%–46%, Expected goals (xG) 0.2–3.0, Shots 8–16, Shots on target 1–8, Shots inside box 3–13, Big chances 0–5, Corners 4–5, Saves 3–1, Fouls 14–19, Offsides 2–1, Yellow cards 1–3.
Did both teams score in Hamburg SV vs Mainz?
No. It finished 0–5, so Hamburg SV failed to score. Bawler's model had put both teams scoring at 62% before kickoff.
Was Bawler's prediction for Hamburg SV vs Mainz right?
Every call is published before kickoff and graded afterwards, misses included. On this match: Our call — we said Hamburg SV or draw 64%, it finished Mainz won (36% called); Total goals — we said 3.1, it finished 5; Both teams to score — we said 62%, it finished No; Graded pick — we said Over 1.5 goals 82%, it finished Landed.