FT · Netherlands: Eredivisie · Sunday, 06 September 2026
Heerenveen 2–3 AZ AlkmaarMatch recap & how our call landed · Sunday, 06 September 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was AZ Alkmaar or draw at 67%. Bawler had Heerenveen at 33%, the draw at 25% and AZ Alkmaar at 42%. The match finished 2–3.
Pre-match probability vs result
Heerenveen win
33%
Draw
25%
AZ Alkmaar win
42%
Result
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.5 – 1.7
Total 3.2
Actual
2 – 3
Total 5 (+1.8 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.5 – 1.5
From the match itself
The match produced 1.8 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 83%
Landed
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 25%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals projects at 83% because both teams combine for 3.19 expected goals, with AZ's striker Troy Parrott generating 24% of his side's chances in a fixture where the xG gap sits just 0.22 apart."