How it finished
AZ Alkmaar beat Heerenveen 3–2. Bawler's model had AZ Alkmaar in front at 42% before kickoff, and that is how it finished. It forecast 3.2 goals; the match produced 5. Heerenveen had 14 shots (5 on target) to AZ Alkmaar's 15 (8), with 45% of the ball against 55%. On expected goals it was 1.5 to 1.5, so Heerenveen created the better chances and still lost the game.
Published before kickoff and settled afterwards — misses included. Every call is time-stamped to the Bitcoin blockchain before the match so it cannot be edited later.
What we expected
What we expected before kickoff.
Each row is drawn on one scale, so a bar means the same length on both sides. Second-half goals are our full-match forecast minus our first half.
Our numbers, most likely first
What we published for this match, strongest first — our three strongest above the line.
First half — what we expected
Chance of at least one goal before half-time: 69%
First-half chances
How the match splits
How to read this
First-half numbers are our full-match forecast split by how much of each side's shooting and corners usually comes before the break. The small bars under each number are that side's most recent first halves (up to six).
Model inputs
Head to head
Common questions
Who won Heerenveen vs AZ Alkmaar?
AZ Alkmaar beat Heerenveen 3–2. Bawler's model had AZ Alkmaar in front at 42% before kickoff, and that is how it finished. It forecast 3.2 goals; the match produced 5. Heerenveen had 14 shots (5 on target) to AZ Alkmaar's 15 (8), with 45% of the ball against 55%. On expected goals it was 1.5 to 1.5, so Heerenveen created the better chances and still lost the game.
What was the final score in Heerenveen vs AZ Alkmaar?
Heerenveen 2–3 AZ Alkmaar, played on 06 Sept 2026 in the Netherlands: Eredivisie. Bawler's model had gone into it with Heerenveen 33%, the draw 25% and AZ Alkmaar 42%.
What were the stats in Heerenveen vs AZ Alkmaar?
Full-time: Possession 45%–55%, Expected goals (xG) 1.5–1.5, Shots 14–15, Shots on target 5–8, Shots inside box 10–8, Big chances 3–2, Corners 4–3, Saves 5–3, Fouls 9–12, Offsides 1–4, Yellow cards 1–2.
Did both teams score in Heerenveen vs AZ Alkmaar?
Yes — both Heerenveen and AZ Alkmaar scored, finishing 2–3. Bawler's model had put both teams scoring at 63% before kickoff.
Was Bawler's prediction for Heerenveen vs AZ Alkmaar right?
Every call is published before kickoff and graded afterwards, misses included. On this match: Our call — we said AZ Alkmaar or draw 67%, it finished AZ Alkmaar won (42% called); Total goals — we said 3.2, it finished 5; Both teams to score — we said 63%, it finished Yes; Graded pick — we said Over 1.5 goals 83%, it finished Landed.