FT · Scotland: Scottish Prem · Saturday, 19 September 2026
Hibernian 1–1 AberdeenMatch recap & how our call landed · Saturday, 19 September 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call missed
Before kickoff our call was Hibernian to win at 61%. Bawler had Hibernian at 61%, the draw at 23% and Aberdeen at 16%. The match finished 1–1.
Pre-match probability vs result
Hibernian win
61%
Draw
23%
Result
Aberdeen win
16%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.9 – 0.9
Total 2.8
Actual
1 – 1
Total 2 (−0.8 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.4 – 0.8
From the match itself
The match produced 0.8 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Hibernian to win
Pre-match: 61%
Missed
Medium confidence
Over 2.5 goals
Pre-match: 54%
Missed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 32%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Hibernian's dominant 0.94 expected-goals advantage fuels the Hibernian or draw prediction at 82% confidence, with the hosts' 1.88 xG output signalling control at home."