USA: MLSThursday 23 Jul, 00:30 UTC

Houston Dynamo FC vD.C. United

Most likely scoreline
1–1
12% of the time · 2.62 goals expected
Houston Dynamo FC 40%Draw 32%D.C. United 28%
Strongest call
Over 1.5 goals
70%

Over 1.5 Goals lands at 70% probability because Houston's 1.44 xG combined with D.C.'s 1.18 projects a low-scoring but goal-heavy fixture.

How we get there
Houston Dynamo FCstepD.C. United
1.27Base xG · rolling 26-match1.26
× 1.13Home advantage · Home× 0.94
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.44Final goal estimate — what the model uses1.18
Most likely outcomes
Over 1.5 goals
70%
Both teams to score
52%
Draw
19%

Model probabilities for this fixture, ordered by likelihood. Estimates from rolling expected goals — not guarantees.

Houston Dynamo average 5.5 corners per game at home this season (23 competitive matches). D.C. United average 4.0 corners per game away from home this season (22 competitive matches).

Scoreline distribution · chance of each scoremodel estimate
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
7
9
5
2
1
1
10
12
7
3
1
2
8
9
5
2
1
3
4
4
3
1
4
1
2
1
5
6
home windrawaway win

More predictions for these teams

Houston Dynamo FC fixtures & form →D.C. United fixtures & form →

Houston Dynamo vs D.C. United — Head-to-Head

This is the first meeting Bawler has on record between Houston Dynamo and D.C. United — the model's ledger starts at model launch, so no earlier fixtures between these two sides have been logged and settled yet.

The model's verdict for this fixture: Houston Dynamo 40% · draw 32% · D.C. United 28%.

Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees — past results do not decide future ones.

Houston Dynamo predictions & form →D.C. United predictions & form →BTTS predictions →Over 2.5 goals predictions →Full track record →
⚡ Full-time recap available
Houston Dynamo FC 1–1 D.C. United
See how the model called it · call-by-call verdict · xG vs actual →
More match predictions ▶
Betting picks & odds for this match (18+) →

Model estimates from rolling expected goals — not guaranteed outcomes. Past accuracy does not guarantee future results.