FT · USA: MLS · Sunday, 16 August 2026
Houston Dynamo FC 1–0 LA GalaxyMatch recap & how our call landed · Sunday, 16 August 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Houston Dynamo FC or draw at 74%. Bawler had Houston Dynamo FC at 44%, the draw at 31% and LA Galaxy at 26%. The match finished 1–0.
Pre-match probability vs result
Houston Dynamo FC win
44%
Result
Draw
31%
LA Galaxy win
26%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.6 – 1.2
Total 2.7
Actual
1 – 0
Total 1 (−1.7 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.2 – 0.7
From the match itself
The match produced 1.7 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 82%
Missed
Medium confidence
Over 2.5 goals
Pre-match: 54%
Missed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 24%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.