FT · USA: MLS · Sunday, 30 August 2026
Houston Dynamo FC 0–0 San Jose EarthquakesMatch recap & how our call landed · Sunday, 30 August 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Houston Dynamo FC or draw at 67%. Bawler had Houston Dynamo FC at 42%, the draw at 25% and San Jose Earthquakes at 33%. The match finished 0–0.
Pre-match probability vs result
Houston Dynamo FC win
42%
Draw
25%
Result
San Jose Earthquakes win
33%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.7 – 1.5
Total 3.2
Actual
0 – 0
Total 0 (−3.2 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
0.7 – 1.2
From the match itself
The match produced 3.2 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 83%
Missed
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 25%
Landed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals is the model's high-confidence call at 83%, backed by Houston's 1.69 xG and a narrow 0.20-goal gap that suggests attacking balance will translate to multiple scores."