FT · USA: MLS · Sunday, 27 September 2026
Houston Dynamo FC 0–2 Sporting Kansas CityMatch recap & how our call landed · Sunday, 27 September 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call missed
Before kickoff our call was Houston Dynamo FC to win at 60%. Bawler had Houston Dynamo FC at 60%, the draw at 23% and Sporting Kansas City at 18%. The match finished 0–2.
Pre-match probability vs result
Houston Dynamo FC win
60%
Draw
23%
Sporting Kansas City win
18%
Result
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
2.0 – 1.0
Total 3.0
Actual
0 – 2
Total 2 (−1.0 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.5 – 1.2
From the match itself
The match produced 1.0 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Houston Dynamo FC or draw
Pre-match: 82%
Missed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 35%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Houston's attacking edge—nearly a full expected-goal advantage at 1.99 to Kansas City's 1.00—underpins the Houston Dynamo FC or draw forecast at 82%, as the Dynamo are favored to either win or draw at home."