FT · USA: MLS · Sunday, 30 August 2026
Inter Miami CF 7–1 CF MontréalMatch recap & how our call landed · Sunday, 30 August 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Inter Miami CF to win at 64%. Bawler had Inter Miami CF at 64%, the draw at 19% and CF Montréal at 17%. The match finished 7–1.
Pre-match probability vs result
Inter Miami CF win
64%
Result
Draw
19%
CF Montréal win
17%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
2.5 – 1.2
Total 3.7
Actual
7 – 1
Total 8 (+4.3 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
3.0 – 0.9
From the match itself
The match produced 4.3 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Inter Miami CF to win
Pre-match: 64%
Landed
Medium confidence
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 51%
Landed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Inter Miami's Home Win forecast sits at 64% on the back of a 1.26 expected-goals advantage, with Messi's creative output fueling a dominant 2.50 xG tally against Montréal's 1.24."