USA: MLSWednesday 22 Jul, 23:30 UTC

Inter Miami CF vChicago Fire FC

Most likely scoreline
11
9% of the time · 3.45 goals expected
Inter Miami CF 44%Draw 27%Chicago Fire FC 29%
Strongest call
Over 1.5 goals
83%

Over 1.5 Goals lands at 83% because Inter Miami's 1.91 xG and Messi's creative dominance (35% of team output) edge Chicago's 1.53 in a matchup tilted toward open play.

How we get there
Inter Miami CFstepChicago Fire FC
1.69Base xG · rolling 26-match1.63
× 1.13Home advantage · Home× 0.94
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.91Final goal estimate — what the model uses1.53
Most likely outcomes
Over 1.5 goals
83%
Under 2.5 goals
30%

Model probabilities for this fixture, ordered by likelihood. Estimates from rolling expected goals — not guarantees.

Inter Miami average 5.3 corners per game at home this season (30 competitive matches). Chicago Fire average 3.8 corners per game away from home this season (25 competitive matches).

Scoreline distribution · chance of each scoremodel estimate
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
3
5
4
2
1
1
6
9
7
4
1
2
6
9
7
4
1
3
4
6
4
2
1
4
2
3
2
1
5
1
1
1
6
home windrawaway win

More predictions for these teams

Inter Miami vs Chicago Fire — Head-to-Head

This is the first meeting Bawler has on record between Inter Miami and Chicago Fire — the model's ledger starts at model launch, so no earlier fixtures between these two sides have been logged and settled yet.

The model's verdict for this fixture: Inter Miami 44% · draw 27% · Chicago Fire 29%.

Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees — past results do not decide future ones.

⚡ Full-time recap available
Inter Miami CF 32 Chicago Fire FC
See how the model called it · call-by-call verdict · xG vs actual →
More match predictions ▶

Model estimates from rolling expected goals — not guaranteed outcomes. Past accuracy does not guarantee future results.