FT · Italy: Serie A · Sunday, 06 September 2026
Juventus 1–1 AC MilanMatch recap & how our call landed · Sunday, 06 September 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Juventus or draw at 75%. Bawler had Juventus at 50%, the draw at 25% and AC Milan at 25%. The match finished 1–1.
Pre-match probability vs result
Juventus win
50%
Draw
25%
Result
AC Milan win
25%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.7 – 1.2
Total 2.9
Actual
1 – 1
Total 2 (−0.9 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.6 – 0.1
From the match itself
The match produced 0.9 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 78%
Landed
Medium confidence
Over 2.5 goals
Pre-match: 54%
Missed
Outside shot
AC Milan to win
Pre-match: 25%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Juventus chases Champions League qualification at home while Milan defends a title push six points clear, yet Juventus's 0.57 xG advantage and Vlahović's 30% shot creation make Over 1.5 Goals the model's 80% forecast."