FT · Italy: Serie A · Sunday, 20 September 2026
Juventus 2–0 AtalantaMatch recap & how our call landed · Sunday, 20 September 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Juventus or draw at 79%. Bawler had Juventus at 54%, the draw at 24% and Atalanta at 21%. The match finished 2–0.
Pre-match probability vs result
Juventus win
54%
Result
Draw
24%
Atalanta win
21%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.8 – 1.0
Total 2.9
Actual
2 – 0
Total 2 (−0.9 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.3 – 0.6
From the match itself
The match produced 0.9 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Juventus or draw
Pre-match: 79%
Landed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 32%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals is the high-confidence forecast at 78%, driven by Juventus's 0.67 xG edge and Vlahović's 30% shot share against an Atalanta side generating just 1.11 expected goals."