FT · Scotland: Scottish Prem · Saturday, 29 August 2026
Kilmarnock 0–4 Dundee UnitedMatch recap & how our call landed · Saturday, 29 August 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call missed
Before kickoff our call was Kilmarnock or draw at 68%. Bawler had Kilmarnock at 43%, the draw at 24% and Dundee United at 32%. The match finished 0–4.
Pre-match probability vs result
Kilmarnock win
43%
Draw
24%
Dundee United win
32%
Result
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.8 – 1.5
Total 3.3
Actual
0 – 4
Total 4 (+0.7 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.0 – 3.5
From the match itself
The match produced 0.7 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 84%
Landed
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 24%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals projects at 84% because Kilmarnock's 1.76 xG and Dundee United's 1.51 xG combined for 3.27 total attacking output in a fixture the model sees as competitive."