FT · Scotland: Scottish Prem · Saturday, 19 September 2026
Kilmarnock 1–1 Heart of MidlothianMatch recap & how our call landed · Saturday, 19 September 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Heart of Midlothian or draw at 78%. Bawler had Kilmarnock at 22%, the draw at 23% and Heart of Midlothian at 55%. The match finished 1–1.
Pre-match probability vs result
Kilmarnock win
22%
Draw
23%
Result
Heart of Midlothian win
55%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.2 – 2.0
Total 3.1
Actual
1 – 1
Total 2 (−1.1 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
0.2 – 1.8
From the match itself
The match produced 1.1 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 82%
Landed
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 23%
Landed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals is the high-confidence call at 82%, as Hearts' 1.87 xG significantly outpaces Kilmarnock's 1.25 in a fixture primed for multiple chances."