How it finished
Kilmarnock and Heart of Midlothian drew 1–1. Bawler's model favoured Heart of Midlothian at 55% before kickoff and got it wrong — it gave the draw 23%. It forecast 3.1 goals; only 2 were scored. Kilmarnock had 4 shots (0 on target) to Heart of Midlothian's 17 (3), with 33% of the ball against 67%. Expected goals finished 0.2 to 1.8.
Published before kickoff and settled afterwards — misses included. Every call is time-stamped to the Bitcoin blockchain before the match so it cannot be edited later.
What we expected
What we expected before kickoff.
Each row is drawn on one scale, so a bar means the same length on both sides. Second-half goals are our full-match forecast minus our first half.
Our numbers, most likely first
What we published for this match, strongest first — our three strongest above the line.
First half — what we expected
Chance of at least one goal before half-time: 81%
First-half chances
How the match splits
How to read this
First-half numbers are our full-match forecast split by how much of each side's shooting and corners usually comes before the break. The small bars under each number are that side's most recent first halves (up to six).
Model inputs
Head to head
Common questions
Who won Kilmarnock vs Heart of Midlothian?
Kilmarnock and Heart of Midlothian drew 1–1. Bawler's model favoured Heart of Midlothian at 55% before kickoff and got it wrong — it gave the draw 23%. It forecast 3.1 goals; only 2 were scored. Kilmarnock had 4 shots (0 on target) to Heart of Midlothian's 17 (3), with 33% of the ball against 67%. Expected goals finished 0.2 to 1.8.
What was the final score in Kilmarnock vs Heart of Midlothian?
Kilmarnock 1–1 Heart of Midlothian, played on 19 Sept 2026 in the Scotland: Scottish Prem. Bawler's model had gone into it with Kilmarnock 22%, the draw 23% and Heart of Midlothian 55%.
What were the stats in Kilmarnock vs Heart of Midlothian?
Full-time: Possession 33%–67%, Expected goals (xG) 0.2–1.8, Shots 4–17, Shots on target 0–3, Shots inside box 4–11, Big chances 0–4, Corners 2–6, Saves 2–0, Fouls 13–17, Offsides 0–0, Yellow cards 2–2.
Did both teams score in Kilmarnock vs Heart of Midlothian?
Yes — both Kilmarnock and Heart of Midlothian scored, finishing 1–1. Bawler's model had put both teams scoring at 59% before kickoff.
Was Bawler's prediction for Kilmarnock vs Heart of Midlothian right?
Every call is published before kickoff and graded afterwards, misses included. On this match: Our call — we said Heart of Midlothian or draw 78%, it finished Draw (23% called); Total goals — we said 3.1, it finished 2; Both teams to score — we said 59%, it finished Yes; Graded pick — we said Over 1.5 goals 82%, it finished Landed.