FT · USA: MLS · Sunday, 27 September 2026
LA Galaxy 3–2 Colorado RapidsMatch recap & how our call landed · Sunday, 27 September 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was LA Galaxy or draw at 64%. Bawler had LA Galaxy at 39%, the draw at 25% and Colorado Rapids at 36%. The match finished 3–2.
Pre-match probability vs result
LA Galaxy win
39%
Result
Draw
25%
Colorado Rapids win
36%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.6 – 1.5
Total 3.1
Actual
3 – 2
Total 5 (+1.9 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.8 – 1.8
From the match itself
The match produced 1.9 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 82%
Landed
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 25%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals projects at 82% confidence as both sides combine for 3.13 expected goals in a fixture where Puig's creative threat meets Colorado's balanced attacking approach."