USA: MLSSunday 02 Aug, 02:30 UTC

LA Galaxy vFC Dallas

Most likely scoreline
11
12% of the time · 2.85 goals expected
LA Galaxy 40%Draw 31%FC Dallas 30%
Strongest call
Over 1.5 goals
75%

Over 1.5 Goals at 75% probability backs a combined 2.85 xG projection, with Galaxy creator Riqui Puig driving 22% of his side's attacking threat at home.

How we get there
LA GalaxystepFC Dallas
1.36Base xG · rolling 26-match1.39
× 1.13Home advantage · Home× 0.94
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.54Final goal estimate — what the model uses1.30
Most likely outcomes
Over 1.5 goals
75%
Over 3.5 goals
22%

Model probabilities for this fixture, ordered by likelihood. Estimates from rolling expected goals — not guarantees.

LA Galaxy average 6.0 corners per game at home this season (22 competitive matches). Dallas average 3.8 corners per game away from home this season (26 competitive matches).

Scoreline distribution · chance of each scoremodel estimate
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
6
8
5
2
1
1
9
12
8
3
1
2
7
9
6
3
1
3
4
5
3
1
4
1
2
1
1
5
1
6
home windrawaway win

More predictions for these teams

LA Galaxy vs Dallas — Head-to-Head

This is the first meeting Bawler has on record between LA Galaxy and Dallas — the model's ledger starts at model launch, so no earlier fixtures between these two sides have been logged and settled yet.

The model's verdict for this fixture: LA Galaxy 40% · draw 31% · Dallas 30%.

Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees — past results do not decide future ones.

⚡ Full-time recap available
LA Galaxy 00 FC Dallas
See how the model called it · call-by-call verdict · xG vs actual →
More match predictions ▶

Model estimates from rolling expected goals — not guaranteed outcomes. Past accuracy does not guarantee future results.