FT · USA: MLS · Thursday, 20 August 2026
LA Galaxy 1–0 San Jose EarthquakesMatch recap & how our call landed · Thursday, 20 August 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was LA Galaxy or draw at 62%. Bawler had LA Galaxy at 38%, the draw at 24% and San Jose Earthquakes at 38%. The match finished 1–0.
Pre-match probability vs result
LA Galaxy win
38%
Result
Draw
24%
San Jose Earthquakes win
38%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.7 – 1.7
Total 3.4
Actual
1 – 0
Total 1 (−2.4 against our forecast)
The match produced 2.4 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 85%
Missed
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 24%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.