USA: MLSThursday 20 Aug, 02:30 UTC

LA Galaxy vSan Jose Earthquakes

Most likely scoreline
11
10% of the time · 3.21 goals expected
LA Galaxy 39%Draw 26%San Jose Earthquakes 35%
How we get there
LA GalaxystepSan Jose Earthquakes
1.70Base xG · rolling 26-match1.51
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.70Final goal estimate — what the model uses1.51

Early projection

These are the model's current numbers for a fixture that hasn't come round yet. They firm up on matchday, once team news and lineups are in — and once the model's call is locked it's never edited, which is what makes the track record mean anything.

LA Galaxy average 6.0 corners per game at home this season (22 competitive matches). San Jose Earthquakes average 5.0 corners per game away from home this season (21 competitive matches).

Scoreline distribution · chance of each scoremodel estimate
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
4
6
5
2
1
1
7
10
8
4
1
2
6
9
7
3
1
3
3
5
4
2
1
4
1
2
2
1
5
1
1
6
home windrawaway win

More predictions for these teams

LA Galaxy vs San Jose Earthquakes — Head-to-Head

In 1 recorded meeting since 26 July 2026, LA Galaxy have won 0, San Jose Earthquakes have won 0, with 1 drawn. This covers only matches in Bawler's own settled ledger — not an all-time head-to-head record.

DateResultCompetition
26 July 2026San Jose Earthquakes 11 LA GalaxyUSA: MLS

The model's verdict for this fixture: LA Galaxy 39% · draw 26% · San Jose Earthquakes 35%.

Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees — past results do not decide future ones.

More match predictions ▶

Model estimates from rolling expected goals — not guaranteed outcomes. Past accuracy does not guarantee future results.