FT · Italy: Serie A · Saturday, 12 September 2026
Lazio 2–2 AC MilanMatch recap & how our call landed · Saturday, 12 September 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was AC Milan or draw at 67%. Bawler had Lazio at 33%, the draw at 28% and AC Milan at 39%. The match finished 2–2.
Pre-match probability vs result
Lazio win
33%
Draw
28%
Result
AC Milan win
39%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.2 – 1.4
Total 2.6
Actual
2 – 2
Total 4 (+1.4 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
2.1 – 1.1
From the match itself
The match produced 1.4 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 74%
Landed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 27%
Landed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals is the model's high-confidence call at 74% because both sides project narrow xG separation (Lazio 1.24, Milan 1.38) with attacking threats like Zaccagni and Leão generating consistent creation pressure."